Lawmakers left Olympia this spring facing a tight budget picture. Now, the interim is entering its most important stretch. The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will release its next major update on September 25. This September revenue forecast will set the tone for everything that follows. It will guide early budget conversations, caucus priorities, and public messaging heading into the 2027 session.
What the September Revenue Forecast Will Measure
The Council tracks personal income growth, employment trends, and tax collections. Each quarter, staff compare new numbers against prior projections. The June forecast already showed slow growth. During that meeting, analysts lowered income projections and flagged rising unemployment.
Washington’s unemployment rate held at 5.2 percent in June, marking the third straight month at that level. Employment Security Department data confirms the trend continued through early summer. Job growth has been modest across most sectors.
The September revenue forecast will show whether this trend continued through the summer. If collections continue to lag, budget writers will have less room to maneuver. The numbers will shape early drafts of agency budget requests.
Interim Work Depends on Accurate Revenue Data
The time between sessions, or “the interim”, often looks quiet from the outside. Behind the scenes, staff build models and brief members. Committees test policy ideas against likely funding constraints. Nothing moves without a solid revenue baseline.
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council publishes its full meeting schedule and materials online, and interim briefings reference the prior quarter’s data constantly. Legislators use this data to sort priorities. Some bill dies may die on the vine once new numbers arrive. Others will gain momentum.
Revenue Growth Remains Uneven
The June forecast projected $82.16 billion in revenue for the 2027–29 biennium. That figure represents growth over the current biennium’s $76.24 billion. However, economic factors alone reduced projected revenue by $427 million for the current biennium. They also cut projected revenue by $450 million for 2027–29.
Higher-than-expected capital gains tax collections offset some of that decline. Current law directs these funds into the Education Legacy Trust Account. This account supports the operating budget directly. Still, forecast council staff describe the overall economic outlook as less optimistic than earlier this year.
Preparing for the 2027 Session
Interest groups with interests in K-12 funding, health care, or transportation should pay close attention. In addition to the Operating budget, revenue funding the Transportation budget has also weakened this year. A soft September revenue forecast could accelerate debate over new funding mechanisms.
The September revenue forecast is more than a routine data release. It is the clearest signal yet of what lawmakers will face in January. Revenue growth remains uneven, and economic headwinds persist. Organizations that understand these numbers early will be better positioned when session begins.